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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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