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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd